2025 POLICY ROADMAP

Mexico's array of trade agreements and proactive SME export initiatives are creating more viable pathways for startups to engage in international sales. Mexico's strategic location and trade framework, particularly the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), are attracting significant foreign direct investment and enabling greater integration with the North American supply chain.

For digitally-adept entrepreneurs, access is set to improve in 2025 due to advancements in digital trade facilitation, the growth of e-commerce, and various export programs. Conversely, for small startups with limited resources, the situation is ambiguous; access has become more attainable yet simultaneously more unpredictable and expensive, owing to fluctuations in trade policy and logistics, including potential tariffs and more stringent rules of origin. These complicate access for entrepreneurs who lack scale, specialized compliance expertise and trade financing.

In January 2025, the government released the Plan México Crece,  providing extensive tax incentives across all industries and regions. For new or expanding businesses, particularly those with capital expenditures, (such as manufacturing, technology hardware, and physical infrastructure), or those investing in training and innovation, these incentives reduce the effective cost of capital. However, the federal budget for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in 2025 is MX$76.4 million, a 6% decrease from 2024. Moreover, various policies and reforms are introducing additional complexities and compliance expenses, especially for digital and platform-based businesses.

2025 Framework Conditions Review

Mexico’s National Entrepreneurial Context Index (NECI) score for 2025 is 4.0, a slight decline from 4.1 in 2024. The NECI score is a measure of the overall quality of an entrepreneurial environment, derived by combining the assessments of a group of national experts from that economy. This score places Mexico 43rd out of 53 economies globally.

National experts rated only three of the 13 framework conditions as sufficient or better (i.e., score ≥ 5.0): Physical Infrastructure (6.1), Social and Cultural Norms (5.6), and Entrepreneurial Education Post-school (5.1). This was unchanged from 2024, when the same three conditions met the sufficiency threshold. The remaining ten conditions are rated as insufficient, with particularly low scores for Entrepreneurial Education at School (2.3), Government Policy: Support and Relevance (2.9), and Research and Development Transfers (2.9), respectively.  Since 2024, five conditions improved their scores, including Government Entrepreneurial Programmes (from 3.4 to 3.9) and Social and Cultural Norms (from 5.1 to 5.6). However, eight conditions saw their scores decline, many by small amounts, including Entrepreneurial Education at School (from 2.6 to 2.3) and Research and Development Transfers (from 3.3 to 2.9).

Mexico ranks in the bottom ten globally (of 53 GEM economies) for both Government Policy conditions, for Entrepreneurial Education at School  and for Ease of Entry: Burdens and Regulations (all ranked 46th), as well as for Research and Development Transfers (47th) .

National experts rated new and growing businesses’ prioritization of sustainability at 5.2, down from 5.5 in 2024. Entrepreneurs’ awareness of the need to develop and implement AI solutions was scored at 6.2, up from 5.2 in 2024, reflecting growing entrepreneurial engagement with digital transformation.

Mexico’s entrepreneurial environment in 2025 remains weak, with a declining NECI score and only three framework conditions rated sufficient. The country ranks low within its income group, facing persistent challenges in education, policy, and innovation. However, its strengths include a strong physical infrastructure and growing awareness of AI. Strategic improvements in government support, education, and sustainability can help Mexico build a more resilient and inclusive entrepreneurial ecosystem.

2025 Entrepreneurial Activity Review

Just over a third of adults in Mexico reported that their household income fell in 2025, slightly down from  2024. Meanwhile, less than one in five adults intend to start a business in the next three years, also down from 2024, indicating a slight decline in entrepreneurial intent.

Entrepreneurial awareness, confidence, and opportunity recognition are all high. A little over three out of  five adults in Mexico know someone who has started a business recently, while seven out of ten see themselves as having the skills and experience to start their own business. Three in five see good conditions to start a business locally, although two in five of these would not start a business for fear that it might fail.

Nearly two in five adults will start or run a new business in 2025, up from 2024. However, one in twenty owns an established business, slightly up from 2024, reflecting a widening  gap between new and established business activity. In a reversal from 2024, men were more likely than women to start a new business. The most agreed motivation among new entrepreneurs is “to earn a living because jobs are scarce,” agreed by well over four in five, followed by “to build great wealth or very high income,” with nearly two out of three agreements.
 

Three out of four new entrepreneurs expect to use more digital technology to sell their products in the next six months, while over one in five new entrepreneurs have customers beyond Mexico, nearly double the level of 2024. Employment prospects are positive, since more than one in three new entrepreneurs anticipate employing more than another five people in five years’ time, up from less than one in four in  2024. Over two-thirds of  new entrepreneurs have taken steps to minimize environmental impacts in the past twelve months, while slightly under three-fifths have taken steps to maximize social impacts. Despite these levels, more than three out of four reports prioritize such impacts above profitability or growth.